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A Primary Case for a Democratic Party Victory in the 14th Congressional District

By Robert M. Neeld

Q: Can Democrats Win The 14th Congressional District?

The answer is: yes.

The Democrats have an unprecedented opportunity to win in the 14th Congressional District due to the fact that Porter Goss, the GOP incumbent since 1988, has announced his intention not to not seek reelection. Goss has run unopposed in the past three elections – a testament to the power of incumbency in this, or in any other Congressional District nationally.

Because incumbents are so difficult to beat at the polls, it must be assumed that the next person who is elected to serve from the 14th District would be extremely difficult to defeat, a fact of life that the losing party must bear for many years to come.

Pain of a potential loss, given this unusual political opportunity within grasp, demands a strong and sustained Democratic Party initiative to capture Goss’ seat.

The time is at hand to select the best candidates and the best issues - even though the 2004 Election is some 13 months away – and chart a course for victory.

What’s The Opposition Up To?

Certain candidates within the Republican Party have taken steps toward becoming that party’s nominee. Every one of them can be termed Conservative, politically. Given what we know about them, and considering the extremely high stakes at-risk for them in the District, a Republican Primary Election must be factored in as a very strong political possibility for the summer of 2004.

Here’s a brief summary of their activity.

GOP contenders who have filed or will soon file papers for the District election are generally:

• Serving on the Lee County Commission;
• Carpet-bagging into the District to organize their campaigns;
• Identified with the GOP Right Wing.

A GOP opponent can be defeated in November of 2004 for the following reasons:

• County Commissioners have voting records that can be torn apart;
• Carpetbaggers – despite name recognition – will be painted as opportunistic;
• Right wingers can be marginalized to the fringe.

Not to underestimate them, the opposition presently has many political assets. Seven considerations:

• An incumbent who will throw his support to the Party nominee;
• Goss’ organization knows how to conduct a district-wide campaign;
• Republicans can count on help from Jeb Bush and his brother in the White House;
• A dominant conservative talk show presence exists in the District
• The opposition has the ability to raise campaign funds, primarily due to the its connections with a network of campaign contributors and PACs;
• They have a sizeable lead in voter registration;
• They have the ability to get frequent headlines in the local press.

Each of these perceived assets can be undermined, however. And these assets should be characterized for what they are: an on-going effort, prior to the election cycle, to maintain Republican Party visibility leading to their winning in 2004.

It’s Never Too Early To Start The Campaign

To offset GOP perceived advantages, several initiatives should be undertaken by the Party as soon as it is practicable. Among them:

• Begin Opposition Research immediately;
• Create a focus group to thoroughly examine campaign issues;
• Intensify the campaign for new voter registration;
• Establish communications with the DCC, political allies and potential allies;
• Commission a preliminary issues / tracking poll;
• Reach out to unaffiliated and potential cross-over voters;
• Short-list and promote candidates who have a prospect of winning;
• Inaugurate intensive and on-going fundraising campaigns;
• Invite prominent Democrats who enjoy national recognition to visit here;
• Build a strong, unified, and competent district-wide campaign organization.

How Democrats Can Win This Race

The following tests should be given to all candidates who have the desire to secure the Party’s nomination to run for Congress in 2004:

• They must be in a position to make a full-time commitment to the campaign;
• They must be able to withstand a vetting of their backgrounds;
• They must make a commitment to conduct a highly-visible, event-driven campaign;
• They must be able to clearly articulate positions on the issues;
• They must be able to “sell” issues and their distinctions and permutations to the Party and, later, to the general public;
• They must be perceived as being “electable” in the mind of the voting public;
• They must be able to work closely and responsively with various constituencies throughout the District;
• And most importantly, they must have the ability to raise campaign contributions.

This Race Will Be Won On Issues

Anyone with a desire to secure the Party’s nomination should strongly consider formulating issues that will “sell” well to the District’s voters – but without negating or compromising the concerns of importance to the various constituencies that comprise this party.

Generally speaking, acceptable and thus winning positions concerning environmental quality, education, social services, tax/budget, labor, immigration, economic growth, labor, law enforcement and campaign finance reform can be framed and later “sold” to voters by the respective candidates.

The axiom here: frame the issues through consensus.

One certain recipe for disaster: adopt an “attack mode.” With so much at stake, the last person District voters want to hear from is a sourpuss who still has a 2000 Florida election ballot ax to grind.

Can Progressive / Liberal Candidates Compete in 2004?

The short answer is: yes. The Party is all-encompassing enough to espouse diversity on a wide range of government and public policy matters. So any credible Liberal or Progressive candidate could win, provided he or she:

• Meet or exceed the criteria set forth above;
• Be in a position to “sell” their issues in this District;

On a cautionary note, Progressives and Liberals would have to overcome several formidable obstacles in order to achieve victory:

• The glaring deficit in voter registration.
• The undeniable fact that 14th Congressional District voters tend to elect conservative and/or middle-of-the road candidates to represent them in the U.S. Congress.

Progressive / Liberal issues are presently perceived to be incompatible with sentiments held by a vast majority of district voters in the district, and given this perception, much effort will have to be exerted to change the voting public’s opinion.

That’s reality.

Should Democrats Fear A Primary?

Let’s assume that two candidates depart the convention – one with an endorsement and another one with enough convention support to qualify for a Primary Election.

One candidate represents the Progressive / Liberal element of the Party while the other candidate is Centrist.

Keep in mind that the GOP appears to be headed for its own Primary -- and could harvest tremendous benefits in the process. (See below.)

A Primary Election should be viewed as a positive event for District Democrats. First, the Party and its candidates could benefit:

• From receiving unprecedented news coverage;
• Candidates would benefit by getting their campaign message out through the news media, in ways that would not be otherwise affordable through advertising.

A Primary Election would:

• Focus media attention on issues and candidates;
• Compel candidates to hone their respective messages;
• Accelerate voter registration;
• Showcase the Party’s political involvement;
• Increase campaign contributions.
• Boost name recognition.

Primary candidates would have to agree, however, to this unalterable condition at the outset:

The winner gets the endorsement and unqualified support of the loser for the campaign against the GOP nominee.

After all, the goal is: win in November 2004.